Before going to bed on the eve of the Fourth of July holiday, Christopher Flowers checked the weather while staying at a friend’s house along the Guadalupe River. Nothing in the forecast raised any alarm.
But just hours later, he was rushing to safety. Flowers awoke in darkness to the sound of electrical sockets popping and water rising around his ankles. His family quickly scrambled nine people into the attic.
Phones began buzzing with alerts, Flowers recalled on Saturday, though he couldn’t remember exactly when they started amid the chaos.
“What they need is some kind of external system, like a tornado warning that tells people to get out now,” said Flowers, 44.
The fast-moving, destructive floodwaters that began before sunrise on Friday in Texas Hill Country had, by Saturday, claimed the lives of at least 32 people, according to officials, reported AP. An unknown number of individuals remained missing, including 27 girls from Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp along a river in Kerr County, where most of the victims were found.
As authorities launched one of the largest search-and-rescue efforts in recent Texas history, scrutiny mounted over whether residents and the numerous youth summer camps along the river had been given sufficient warning or told to evacuate.
The National Weather Service had issued multiple flash flood warnings in the early hours of Friday, culminating in flash flood emergencies — a rare and severe alert indicating imminent danger, reported AP.
Local officials, however, have insisted that the flood`s scale was unforeseen and have defended their response.
“There’s going to be a lot of finger-pointing, a lot of second-guessing and Monday morning quarterbacking,” said Republican US Representative Chip Roy, whose district includes Kerr County. “There’s a lot of people saying “why” and “how”, and I understand that.”
When the warnings began
An initial flood watch — typically a general advisory for residents to remain weather-aware — was issued by the local National Weather Service office at 1.18 pm on Thursday. It forecast rainfall between 5 and 7 inches (12.7 to 17.8 centimetres), reported AP.
Weather messaging from the office grew more urgent in the early hours of Friday, including mobile alerts warning people in at-risk areas to move to higher ground and evacuate flood-prone zones, said Jason Runyen, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service.
At 4.03 am, an urgent warning was issued, warning of catastrophic damage and severe threats to human life.
Jonathan Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather — a private forecasting company that uses National Weather Service data — said the situation warranted earlier action.
“People, businesses, and governments should take action based on Flash Flood Warnings that are issued, regardless of the rainfall amounts that have occurred or are forecast,” Porter said in a statement.
Local officials maintained that they had not anticipated such an intense deluge, which amounted to months’ worth of rain falling in just hours.
“We know we get rains. We know the river rises,” said Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly, the county’s top elected official. “But nobody saw this coming.”
Kelly noted that the county had once considered installing a flood warning system along the river, similar to a tornado siren, about six or seven years ago — before he took office — but the plan never materialised due to costs.
“We’ve looked into it before — the public reeled at the cost,” Kelly said.
Hundreds rescued
Texas Governor Greg Abbott said on Saturday that the extensive emergency response had resulted in the rescue and recovery of more than 850 people, including some who were found clinging to trees.
Dozens of individuals along the river, including girls at Camp Mystic, were airlifted to safety by helicopter.
Kelly said he was unsure what kind of safety and evacuation procedures the camps had in place.
“What I do know is the flood hit the camp first, and it came in the middle of the night. I don’t know where the kids were,” he said, adding, “I don’t know what kind of alarm systems they had. That will come out in time.”
US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem said on Saturday that accurately predicting the rainfall totals had been difficult. She added that the Trump administration would prioritise upgrading National Weather Service technology used for issuing warnings.
“We know that everyone wants more warning time, and that’s why we’re working to upgrade the technology that’s been neglected for far too long to make sure families have as much advance notice as possible,” Noem said during a press conference with state and federal officials.
Weather service ramped up staffing
The National Weather Service office in New Braunfels — which provides forecasts for Austin, San Antonio, and surrounding areas — had increased staffing during the storm, according to Runyen.
Where two forecasters would typically be on duty during calm weather, the office had up to five staff working through the night.
“There were extra people in here that night, and that’s typical in every weather service office — you staff up for an event, bring people in on overtime, and hold people over,” Runyen said.
(With AP inputs)