Israel and Iran traded further missile fire on Monday, amid rising fears that the United States (US) could deepen its involvement in the conflict by carrying out ground operations against Iran’s Gulf territories. These concerns triggered a surge in global oil prices.
Iran also carried out new strikes targeting a water desalination plant in Kuwait, following attacks over the weekend on its own electrical infrastructure that caused power outages in parts of Tehran, news agency AFP reported.
Saudi Arabia stated it had intercepted five ballistic missiles.
The conflict has disrupted the global economy, leading to fuel shortages across large parts of Asia, volatility in stock markets, and a sharp rise in oil prices. The main US benchmark crossed USD 100 per barrel, while Brent crude traded in the UK rose steeply to nearly USD 117.
With economies already under strain from recent increases in energy costs, and President Donald Trump openly considering a military move to seize Iran’s main oil export terminal, market analysts warned that any US ground action or broader Iranian retaliation could push oil prices to unprecedented levels.
West Asia conflict: Oil price surge
“If the US were to launch a ground invasion of Iran, possibly targeting Kharg Island, or if Tehran were to intensify retaliatory strikes on energy infrastructure or fully shut the Strait, projections of USD 200 per barrel oil would no longer be unrealistic,” said Tamas Varga of PVM Energy.
Oil prices have never exceeded USD 150 per barrel, last reaching record highs during the July 2008 commodity boom.
However, since the conflict began, Brent crude has risen by nearly 60 percent.
In an interview with the Financial Times, Trump said he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize the export hub at Kharg Island. He compared this to US actions in Venezuela, where Washington plans to control the oil industry following the capture of leader Nicolas Maduro in January.
At the same time, the US President expressed confidence that the conflict could soon end through negotiations, as Pakistan hosted regional foreign ministers for discussions on the crisis.
As Israel continued its offensive against Iran-backed Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, an official told AFP that an Israeli strike hit an army checkpoint, killing at least one Lebanese soldier. Indonesia confirmed that one of its peacekeepers had been killed after a projectile struck a UN position.
Separately, the Israeli military reported that a soldier was killed on Sunday during combat in southern Lebanon, bringing the total number of troops killed since fighting with Hezbollah began this month to six.
Diplomatic efforts
On the ground, there were no signs of easing hostilities. Israel said its air defence systems responded to “missiles launched from Iran”, after earlier announcing strikes on what it described as “terror regime military infrastructure across Tehran”.
On the diplomatic front, Pakistan—acting as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran—hosted foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt in Islamabad for talks.
Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Dar said the discussions focused on ways to “bring an early and permanent end to the war”. He added that both Iran and the United States had expressed confidence in Pakistan’s role in facilitating dialogue.
Dar also said he had spoken with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, and other counterparts who supported the initiative.
However, Iran’s parliamentary speaker accused Washington of using diplomacy as a cover.
Despite engaging in diplomatic outreach, including proposing a 15-point peace plan, the United States has continued to deploy additional military resources to the region, including an amphibious assault ship carrying 3,500 Marines.
Sleepless nights
Iran confirmed that an Israeli strike last week killed Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ naval forces, whom Israel had identified as responsible for efforts to block the Strait of Hormuz.
The ongoing strikes have also severely affected civilians in Iran.
“I miss a peaceful night’s sleep,” an artist in Tehran told AFP, describing the night-time bombardments as so intense that “it felt like the whole city was shaking”.
The conflict has expanded into a wider regional crisis, with Iran retaliating against Gulf states and effectively restricting access through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.
Iran stated that it has closed the Strait to vessels from hostile nations. The waterway had previously accounted for roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil trade and about one-fifth of liquefied natural gas shipments.
(With AFP inputs)