The Thackeray cousins had parted ways in 2005. Ever since, Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and the Shiv Sena (undivided till 2022 and later the UBT camp) have found themselves on opposite sides of Maharashtra’s political spectrum. Both parties’ leaders have frequently taken veiled digs at each other, using public platforms to criticise policies, leadership styles, and political choices without taking names, and direct confrontations have been rare.
With the BJP-led Mahayuti government attempting to introduce Hindi subtly into Maharashtra’s school education, the move has not only met with backlash, but has even led to the unprecedented scene of Raj and Uddhav sharing a dais at the ‘Marathi victory rally’.
Expectations are high not only within both Sena factions, but among a large section of Marathi-speaking people too, of a formal reunion between the Thackeray cousins. Many in political corridors feel that a reunion of the two Sena factions has the potential to revive the core ideology of Marathi-asmita-driven politics.
Though the effect may not be across Maharashtra, it would certainly have an impact in Mumbai, Thane and Nashik areas, which are known to be cosmopolitan regions with strong Marathi pockets.
According to rough estimates, the Marathi-speaking population of Mumbai is around 30 per cent, while that of Thane is 45 per cent. In Nashik, the percentage is as high as 70 per cent. Any change and marginal consolidation of Marathi votes can alter outcomes of local body polls significantly, especially in
urban areas.
In the 2017 BMC elections, the undivided Shiv Sena won 84 seats, two more than the BJP, and emerged the single largest party. MNS had bagged seven seats. As per the 2017 civic elections numbers, Sena (united) had secured 14,43,939 votes (30.41 per cent) while BJP snared 13,94,464 (28.23 per cent), while MNS polled 3,94,652 (5.74 per cent). However, a lot has changed after the Sena split orchestrated by Eknath Shinde, weakening its organisational strength. But, Raj and Uddhav coming together could fill the vacuum created by Shinde’s exit and setting up a separate party. The strength could reshape power dynamics and pose a formidable challenge to the BJP and its alliance partner in the Mahayuti government, and enable the Thackeray cousins to regain lost ground in key municipal bodies.
With so much build-up about the Thackeray cousins coming together, the real question is, will this show of strength and unity just be a photo-op for the day or pave the way for a long-term electoral alliance?
As there are still a couple of months to go for local body elections, one should not be expecting any formal or concrete alliance announcement from this victory rally. But, an indicative roadmap of what’s next in store is what the ‘Sainiks’ would like to know or take away from the victory rally at the NSCI Dome in Worli.
Ideally, joining hands politically seems like the natural next step. But as Uddhav and Raj are two different personalities, a lot needs to be fleshed out before they take the leap.
While Uddhav might prefer a softer and inclusive campaign, cousin Raj is likely to push for a hard pro-Marathi line. Both will have to compromise a lot to sort out the issue of contradiction, and when it comes to seat sharing as they have a common voter base.
If handled with patience and wisdom, the reunion could work miracles, but if any issues in alignment become bones of contention, they will become a major source of discord.
So, if Raj and Uddhav take different routes in the future, then this could end up being a political self-goal, not just disappointing their supporters, but possibly causing further erosion in their voter base.
The indecisiveness and disappointment will help Eknath Shinde-headed Shiv Sena and the BJP. Shinde, who claims to carry forward Shiv Sena chief the late Bal Thackeray’s Marathi and Hindutva legacy and now has aligned with the BJP, will benefit the most as he is also liked and followed by many traditional Marathi voters, especially among the working class.
Shiv Sena (undivided) was formed in 1966 to fight injustice meted out to ‘Sons of Soil’. On the other hand, the BJP, which has a strong party cadre and nationalist agenda too, can be a party that could appeal to Marathi followers who are disappointed with the Thackeray cousins for placing their personal and political interests over the larger cause of the Marathi manoos. Besides Marathi, the BJP enjoys good clout among North Indian, Gujarati, Marwari and other non-Marathi speaking voters. Any further addition of Marathi voters would further strengthen the BJP, especially when the party is said to build a narrative of good governance and infrastructure-driven vision for metro cities as against the cultural and legacy ideology likely to be invoked by the Opposition —the MNS and UBT camps.
Despite the palpable excitement over the reunion, the situation is, in actuality, a double-edged sword for the cousins — take the same path forward or risk slipping into political irrelevance.
Sanjeev Shivadekar is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @SanjeevScribe
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The views expressed in this column are the individual’s and don’t represent those of the paper