India’s population is projected to stabilise around 1.8 to 1.9 billion by 2080, driven by a declining total fertility rate (TFR), which currently stands below the replacement level at 1.9, an official said.
The country is undergoing a rapid demographic transition, with birth rates falling sharply over the past two decades. “In 2000, our TFR was 3.5. Today it is 1.9. This is a drastic decline,” Anil Chandran, general secretary of the Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP), told PTI. He added that India’s population is expected to peak at 1.8–1.9 billion by 2080, remaining below two billion, reported news agency PTI.
Chandran attributed the decline primarily to rising development and education levels. Increased female literacy has reshaped decisions around marriage and childbearing, resulting in smaller families. Wider access to contraceptives and family planning services has further accelerated the trend. “Couples today are better informed and exercise greater control over when and how many children to have,” he said, reported PTI.
Late marriages and growing economic opportunities—especially for women pursuing careers—have also influenced reproductive choices. “Development is inversely proportional to birth rates. Fertility among illiterate groups remains above three, while among the educated it ranges between 1.5 and 1.8,” Chandran explained.
Citing Kerala, he noted that the state achieved replacement-level fertility (2.1) between 1987 and 1989, and now its TFR stands around 1.5. West Bengal has also witnessed a sharp decline: according to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, the state’s TFR fell to 1.3, down from 1.7 in 2013—a nearly 18 per cent drop—placing it among the lowest in the country, alongside Tamil Nadu and just above Delhi, reported PTI.
While birth rates are declining, life expectancy continues to rise due to healthcare improvements. “More people are living beyond 60, which creates new challenges for elderly care, especially as younger generations migrate for work,” Chandran said, noting that solutions such as elderly day-care facilities are increasingly being discussed.
Founded in 1971, IASP comprises around 1,100 demographers and population scientists and regularly deliberates on population issues with support from organisations including UNFPA, the Population Council, and the Population Foundation of India.
(With PTI inputs)