US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the war against Iran could be short-lived, but he left open the possibility of an escalation in fighting if global oil supplies are disrupted by the Islamic Republic, which chose a new hard-line supreme leader.
Oil prices briefly shot to their highest level since 2022 a day after Iran selected Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his late father as Iran`s supreme leader. Investors saw it as a signal that Iran was digging in 10 days into the war launched by the United States and Israel.
But prices later fell and US stocks rose on hopes that the war with Iran may not last much longer. “We took a little excursion” to the Middle East “to get rid of some evil. And, I think you will see it is going to be a short-term excursion”, Trump told Republican lawmakers at his golf club near Miami.
Hours later, Trump posted on social media: “If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.” In an apparent response to Trump`s remarks published in Iranian state media, a spokesperson for the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, Ali Mohammad Naini, said, “Iran will determine when the war ends.”
The war has choked off major supplies of oil and gas to world markets and sent fuel prices rising across the US. The fighting has also led foreigners to flee from business hubs and prompted millions to seek shelter as bombs hit military bases, government buildings, oil and water installations, hotels and at least one school.
Trump also had a call on Monday with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the war and other issues. Putin`s foreign affairs adviser, Yuri Ushakov, said Putin “voiced a few ideas regarding a quick political and diplomatic settlement” of the conflict following his conversations with Gulf leaders and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Khamenei, a secretive 56-year-old cleric, is only the third supreme leader in the history of the Islamic Republic. He has close ties to the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which has been firing missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf Arab states since his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had ruled since 1989, was killed during the war`s opening salvo.
Multiple strikes shake Tehran
Dozens of explosions were heard in Tehran in what was considered the heaviest air raid on the capital since the war started on February 28. Iranian media did not report on damages and casualties.
Israel said on Monday that it was carrying out “a wide-scale wave of strikes” on the Iranian city of Isfahan, as well as Tehran and in southern Iran. The Israeli military said it hit dozens of infrastructure sites, including the drone headquarters of the Revolutionary Guard.
Meanwhile, Israel`s military alerted the population throughout the day about incoming missiles from Iran. From Lebanon, Iran-backed Hezbollah also fired rockets into Israel on Monday.
Trump said the United States was nearing its goal to eliminate Iran`s ballistic-missile stockpile and its ability to produce and launch them. The administration has offered shifting rationales and timelines since the start of the conflict. He also talked about “building a new country”, a comment that seemed to suggest the US might be engaged in the building of a new Iran.
Trump likes idea of another `internal` candidate to lead Iran
Thousands poured into a central square in the capital, Tehran, and other locations in a show of allegiance to the new supreme leader, waving flags and shouting phrases like “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”. The younger Khamenei, who has not been seen in public since the war started, was long considered a potential successor — even before the killing of his 86-year-old father.
Trump told reporters that he was “disappointed” that Mojtaba Khamenei was picked and that he liked “the idea” of a leader drawn from an “internal” group of candidates, saying that worked well with Venezuela. The younger Khamenei is seen as even less compromising than his late father. As supreme leader, he has the final say on all major policies, including Tehran`s disputed nuclear programme.
Though Iran`s key nuclear sites are in tatters after the US bombed them during the 12-day Israel-Iran war in June, it still has highly-enriched uranium that is a technical step away from weapons-grade levels. Khamenei could choose to do what his father never did — build a nuclear bomb. Trump told reporters the war with Iran started because that country was working on a new site for developing material for nuclear weapons to replace one bombed last year by the US. Israel has already described Khamenei as a potential target. Trump said on Monday it “would be inappropriate” to say whether he would be targeted.
US market seesaws over uncertainty of war
The US stock market careened through a manic Monday, going from a steep early loss to a solid gain as worries turned into hope that the war with Iran may not last that long. Oil prices whipped from nearly USD 120 per barrel, the highest since 2022, back toward USD 90.
Iran`s attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have all but stopped tankers from using the shipping lane through which a fifth of the world`s oil is carried, and Iranian drones and missiles have targeted oil and gas infrastructure in major producers. Attacks on merchant ships near the strait have killed at least seven mariners, according to the International Maritime Organisation.
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